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Week 4 Game Picks
Sep 24th
Interesting that we’re all picking BYU after they got blown out by their arch rival. Florida State at Clemson, Oklahoma State at Texas A&M, and USC at Arizona State are the toughest picks this week.
Week 4
Match-ups Correct picks in Red |
Todd Erickson College Gridiron 365.com | Gerry Ahern Yahoo College Sports | Tom Dienhart Rivals.com | Mike Huguenin Rivals.com |
Season % | (45-15) .750 | (42-18) .700 | (45-15) .750 | (44-16) .733 |
UCF at BYU | UCF | BYU | BYU | BYU |
Florida State at Clemson | Clemson | Florida State | Clemson | Florida State |
No. Carolina at GA Tech | GA Tech | GA Tech | GA Tech | GA Tech |
Kansas State at Miami | Miami | Miami | Miami | Miami |
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | Notre Dame |
Toledo at Syracuse | Syracuse | Toledo | Syracuse | Toledo |
LSU at West Virginia | LSU | LSU | LSU | LSU |
San Diego St. at Michigan | Michigan | Michigan | Michigan | San Diego St |
UCLA at Oregon State | Oregon St | UCLA | Oregon St | Oregon St |
California at Washington | Washington | Washington | Washington | Cal |
W. Michigan at Illinois | Illinois | Illinois | Illinois | Illinois |
Arkansas at Alabama | Alabama | Alabama | Alabama | Alabama |
So. Miss at Virginia | Virginia | So. Miss | So. Miss | So. Miss |
Nebraska at Wyoming | Nebraska | Nebraska | Nebraska | Nebraska |
Oklahoma St at Texas A&M | TAMU | Oklahoma St | TAMU | TAMU |
Missouri at Oklahoma | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | Oklahoma |
Florida at Kentucky | Florida | Florida | Florida | Florida |
Vanderbilt at So. Carolina | South Carolina | South Carolina | South Carolina | South Carolina |
Oregon at Arizona | Oregon | Oregon | Oregon | Oregon |
USC at Arizona State | ASU | ASU | USC | ASU |
The 3 Keys to the BYU – UCF Game
Sep 21st
Overview
Both teams are coming off tough losses; BYU has faced tougher opponents and has two losses to show for it. Both team’s defenses have carried the burden throughout the first three games of the season. That dependency won’t change for either team in this game.
The Knights are coming off a close, but unexpected loss, and they have a chip on their shoulder. They are eager to get back on the winning track they enjoyed throughout last season and the first two games this year.
From a purely psychological standpoint, the BYU’s confidence is shaken and they are desperate to prove to themselves and the public that they are not the same team that lost to Utah by 44 points last Saturday. Although, you wouldn’t know the Cougars suffered a quake in confidence based on what defensive back Corby Eason said at a pre-game press conference earlier in the week:
“If we stop the quarterback, like, they have no offense. He’s a great player. He can run the ball and he can pass the ball. We just have to stop him. Once we stop him, I don’t believe nobody else can beat us.”
Okay, Corby, UCF thanks you for your quiet and respectful over-confidence – and the extra motivation you have provided them.
The 3 Keys to this Game
Arguably, these three keys could be used as a template for the remainder of BYU’s season. We know the defense is good enough to get the job done against any opponent, as long as the offense carries its own weight.
- Ball control – with points. BYU’s offense has shown a glimmer here and there in their first three games of being able to eat up clock and put points on the board in the same drive. But they have to get points on their possessions. It does little good to use up clock and have nothing to show for it. If they fail to keep the ball out of QB Jeff Godfrey’s hands, you will see the Cougar defense fatigue in the second half again – like they did against Texas and Utah – and the game will be put out of reach from the Cougar offense.
- Turnovers. Against Utah, the defense kept the team in the game during the first half, despite three turnovers and generally uninspired mistake-ridden football by the offense. The floodgate opened wide for BYU turnovers in the second half and the defense couldn’t keep up with the landslide. The offense couldn’t do anything right, so there was absolutely no “lift” from a momentum shift that the team could rally around. So, if you see the offense committing more than a couple turnovers against the Knights, don’t expect the outcome of this game to be pretty.
- The Long Ball. BYU has to stretch the field to open up their running game. If the receivers are getting open, which usually isn’t a problem, then Jake Heaps needs to deliver the ball. While he has had a few nice long passes this year, more often than not, he has overthrown or underthrown his receivers and stalled out potential drives. When opposing defenses see that the Cougars are toothless in the long passing game, they can load the box and play to stuff the run and short range passes.
Prediction
Brandon Doman refuses to leave the sideline, despite having called three awful games to start the season. Bronco Mendenhall claimed the defense was out of position last week in the second half when Utah’s ground game shredded his front seven., rather than admitting the defense was fatigued and had no gas or will left. Corby Eason’s unfortunate comment about the UCF offense earlier this week shows a lack of humility, as well as a lack of respect for Cougar opponents. There are some very disturbing disconnects taking place inside the BYU football program. Call this one UCF 27 BYU 17.
BYU Report Card vs. Utah
Sep 19th
In the past 37 years of BYU football, the Cougars have hit a 3-game offensive dead-spin only twice before this season: in 1974 under Lavell Edwards and in 2002 under Gary Crowton. Both of those seasons ended in a sub-.500 win-loss record.
With the 2011 season now one-quarter of the way complete, BYU’s offense is ranked near the very bottom of Division 1-A college football in Scoring Offense. To put that in perspective for you, Brandon Doman’s creation exists in a realm inhabited by offensive juggernaut programs such as Western Kentucky, San Jose State, Kent State, and Akron.
Even worse, the nightmarish offensive performance finally tipped the ship on the defense in Week 3, after we began to see the meltdown take place in the second half of the Texas game.
Watching BYU’s Defense get shredded on the ground by Utah in the second half, one couldn’t help but get the feeling that they were communicating to the Offense: “Enough is enough. If you’re going to keep us on the field this long every game, we’re gonna make your butts come right back out here.”
It was painfully visible that the Band of Brothers had disbanded. Given up. Thrown in the towel. Whether they can re-group this season is a question that will loom large not only this week but into the future.
What on earth happened to the team that Bronco was gushing about just 20 days ago? Was he fooled by a mirage?
Whatever, he thought he saw, it doesn’t exist, and if he truly wants to jump-start the Offense this season, he needs to consider immediate changes. He needs to consider hiring a retired offensive wizard with previous ties to the BYU program – someone like Ted Tollner or Brian Billick – who will get Brandon Doman off the sidelines and into the skybox. Let them tutor him how to read the game from a bird’s eye point of view. Let them call the plays and gradually work him into his job, making sure he fully understands what it takes to run an offense and make play-by-play adjustments in crunch time.
Or better yet, let Doman do what he does best – coach the quarterbacks. And just leave the play calling to someone who’s got the experience.
If Mendenhall decides not to make any changes and the offense doesn’t get untracked, the question that needs to be asked is: What’s more important – Doman’s career or the BYU football program?
Other Questions Nobody Has Asked: Did any other offensive coordinators ever interview for the BYU job besides Doman, or was he just handed the keys after Anae was shown the door? If so, how did Bronco know that Doman could handle on-the-fly play calling in the heat of battle?
Coaching Grade: F
Seven turnovers.
Whatever adjustments were made at halftime and as the game started to unravel in the third quarter were totally ineffective.
Keeping Heaps on the field in the fourth quarter with a 30-point deficit. Why didn’t we see James Lark at that point? Bronco had gushed about how he had competed well in August camp. Conversely, if the season’s outcome is so dependent on keeping Heaps healthy, than why wasn’t he pulled when the game was already out of reach?
First Half Offense Grade: D
Second Half Offense Grade: F
Heaps 32-yard TD pass to Apo at the 7:19 mark of the second quarter is about the only good thing memorable.
The Offense tallied six of the team’s seven turnovers.
Rushing yards per attempt? 0.5
Heaps got his first 300-yard passing game of his career, but quite frankly, who cares? Stats like that are meaningless unless they come attached to a Win.
First Half Defense Grade: B+
Second Half Defense Grade: D-
Kyle Van Noy made a phenomenally athletic interception in the first half. The first half would have been an A if the secondary didn’t melt down in coverage near the end of the second quarter.
Eason has serious coverage problems. BYU has better cornerbacks in the depth chart and they need to start using them.
Special Teams Grade: D+
Justin Sorenson banged in a nice 46-yard field goal. He also kicked out of bounds at the beginning of the second half to give Utah primo field position.
Riley Stephenson had a 46.5-yard average on 6 punts with three inside the 20. His longest was a 65-yarder.
J.D. Falslev fumbled at the 3-yard line to give Utah an easy touchdown two plays later.
The punt coverage team gave up a 29-yard return in the second half to negate a nice punt by Stephenson.
Final Team Grade: F+
Week 3 Game Pick Results
Sep 18th
Straight flush 14-6’s across the board this week. We all could’ve done better than that.
Week 3
Match-ups Winners in Red |
Todd Erickson College Gridiron 365.com | Gerry Ahern Yahoo College Sports | Tom Dienhart Rivals.com | Mike Huguenin Rivals.com |
Season % | (45-15) .750 | (42-18) .700 | (45-15) .750 | (44-16) .733 |
This week | 14-6 | 14-6 | 14-6 | 14-6 |
Pittsburgh at Iowa | Iowa | Iowa | Iowa | Iowa |
Mississippi at Vanderbilt | Ole Miss | Ole Miss | Ole Miss | Ole Miss |
Auburn at Clemson | Auburn | Auburn | Auburn | Auburn |
West Virginia at Maryland | Maryland | Maryland | Maryland | WVU |
Penn State at Temple | Penn State | Penn State | Penn State | Penn State |
Kansas at Georgia Tech | Ga Tech | Ga Tech | Ga Tech | Ga Tech |
Texas at UCLA | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas |
Washington at Nebraska | Nebraska | Nebraska | Nebraska | Nebraska |
Miami (OH) at Minnesota | Minnesota | Minnesota | Minnesota | Miami (OH) |
Virginia at No. Carolina | UNC | UNC | UNC | UNC |
Tennessee at Florida | Florida | Florida | Florida | Florida |
Michigan St at Notre Dame | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | Notre Dame |
Arizona State at Illinois | ASU | ASU | ASU | ASU |
Navy at South Carolina | So. Carolina | So. Carolina | So. Carolina | So. Carolina |
Louisville at Kentucky | Kentucky | Kentucky | Kentucky | Kentucky |
Utah at BYU | BYU | BYU | BYU | Utah |
Ohio State at Miami | Miami | Miami | Miami | Ohio State |
Stanford at Arizona | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford |
Oklahoma at Florida State | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | Oklahoma |
Oklahoma St. at Tulsa | OK State | OK State | OK State | OK State |
The Key to Beating Utah is Simple
Sep 16th
The 2011 rivalry game has all the makings to be an ugly one. Not as ugly as the 2003 game. Nothing could be that ugly. And no, it wasn’t the bitter cold and snow that made it an ugly game, thank you very much, Gary C.
This match-up presents a different kind of ugly. The kind that should produce a low-scoring battle, slugged out in the trenches with field position and turnovers setting the table for the few points that will make it on the board. More >
Week 3 Game Picks
Sep 15th
This week we all agree on an unprecedented 16 of 20 games, with Huguenin breaking from the pack on the other four games. If you like picking teams against the grain, Mike’s going with West Virginia over Maryland, Miami (OH) over Minnesota, Utah over BYU, and Ohio State over Miami. Good luck! More >