Both BYU and Oregon State were expected to be better than what they’ve demonstrated so far this season.  There are a lot of interesting variables in this match-up, so we had some fun and tried out a new way of calculating the potential outcome of Saturday’s game in Corvallis.

Revenge factor: OSU +3  (Last meeting in the 2009 Las Vegas Bowl, BYU 44 OSU 20)

Home field advantage: OSU +3

Momentum from last game: OSU +5 (37-27 win over Pac-12 foe Arizona)

Momentum from last game: BYU +3 (29-16 win over WAC San Jose State)

1 Win in 2011: OSU +1

4 Total wins in 2011: BYU +4

Tradition of finishing season strong: OSU +5

Tradition of finishing season strong: BYU +3

Current Key Injuries: OSU – 3.5 (2 OL injuries, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 CB out)

Current Key Injuries: BYU 0

QB Team Leadership: OSU, 0  (1 win, 256 ypg, 4 TD, 7 INT, 6.5 ypa)

QB Team Leadership: BYU, +3 (2 wins, 201 ypg, 5 TD, 2 INT, 8.9 ypa)

Coaching Staff, scale of 1-10: BYU, 6

Coaching Staffm scale of 1-10: OSU, 6

Key Stat #1, Turnover margin: OSU -2 (-0.40, #84 in nation)

Key Stat #1, Turnover margin: BYU -3 (-0.67, #94 in nation)

Key Stat #2, 3rd down conversions, BYU +2 (43.18, #51 in nation)

Key Stat #2, 3rd down conversions, OSU +2 (41.03, #67 in nation)

Key Stat #3, Opponent 3rd down conversions, BYU +1 (39.47, #60 in nation)

Key Stat #3, Opponent 3rd down conversions, OSU +1 (41.94, #74 in nation)

Key Stat #4, Red Zone conversions, BYU -2 (77.78, #84 in nation)

Key Stat #4, Red Zone conversions, OSU -2 (75.00, #91 in nation)

Key Stat #5, Scoring offense: OSU +1 (20.8, #97 in nation)

Key Stat #5, Scoring offense: BYU, 0 (20.0, #101 in nation)

Key Stat #6, Scoring defense: OSU, -3 (30.6 #90 in nation)

Key Stat #6, Scoring defense: BYU, -1 (23.5, #49 in nation)

Key Stat #7, Total defense: OSU, +1 (383.63, #65 in nation)

Key Stat #7, Total defense: BYU, +2 (351.3, #43 in nation)

Key Stat #8, Strength of schedule: OSU, +5 (73.43, #21 in nation)

Key Stat #8, Strength of schedule: BYU, +2 (69.33, #48 in nation)

Predicted Final Score: OSU 24  BYU 20